A variable is an element of a system that changes over time. There is not only a single variable in the system. The variables in the system may be very different under different time dimensions and different observation levels. Grasping the core variable elements in the system you are concerned about is the first step to understanding and changing the system.
In user growth, the most important variable is users. The number of users increases and decreases, and the value of users increases and decreases, which determines the results of user growth. The user variable can be further divided into stock users and traffic users. Internet products seek to maximize traffic, but in more cases, stock users bring more value to the product. Short-term traffic users can be converted into long-term stock users, and stock users will also be lost.
Increasing the scale of traffic users and conversion retention, mining the value and life cycle of existing users, and taking into account both existing users and traffic users are the principles that should be abided by for user growth.
2. The causal chain
A causal chain is a strengthening or weakening connection between variable elements in a system. The cause is the cause, the cause, and the effect is the result, the goal.
Under the established result goals, there are reasons that can enhance the results and promote the realization of the goals, and there are also reasons that weaken the results and deviate from the target expectations. Analyze and identify the reasons for strengthening and weakening in advance, strengthen the "reasons that enhance the results", and country email list solve the "causes of weakening the results". The reason” is the key to ensuring the achievement of the expected results and goals.
The application of the causal chain has two steps: 1) accurately determine the cause and effect; 2) intervene in the cause in advance. A misunderstanding that is easy to fall into when judging causality is to mistake correlation for causality. The correlation of two variables means that the two appear at the same time regularly, but there is no direct connection between the two. The two variables are causal. Refers to a direct connection between two variables, where one variable causes the change or appearance of the other variable. Watermelon sales and ice cream sales increase at the same time, which is a correlation but not causality. Higher temperature and ice cream sales are causal. Temperature and ice cream sales form a causal chain.
The job of user growth is to find definite causality among uncertain correlations, and then intervene to achieve user growth.
3. Enhance the loop
A reinforcement loop is a causal chain that forms a closed loop. The cause strengthens the effect, and the effect continues to strengthen the cause, forming a positive reinforcement loop, and the causal cycle continues to strengthen each other. On the contrary, there is also a negative reinforcing loop, the cause weakens the effect, and the effect weakens the cause.
Ad it also has a wide range of application cases in the business world. Taobao, a C2C e-commerce platform, the more merchants on the platform, the more shopping options provided to users, resulting in more shopping users; the more shopping users, the more consumer demand, the larger the consumption scale, the more merchants settled in, and the growth of merchants and users. The loop drives the development of Taobao.